Dynamic Modeling of Iran's Integrated Water Market
Keywords:
Water market, modeling, price discovery, water rights, dynamic allocation, market governance, development index.Abstract
The civilizational role of arid-region countries experiencing water stress—such as Egypt and Iran—and particularly the provinces situated along Iran's desert fringes (Semnan, Yazd, Qom, Kerman, Isfahan, and Khorasan), has been historically distinctive in the management of water resources, qanat construction, and water distribution. Therefore, this study aims to model the creation of an integrated water market through a system dynamics approach. Utilizing system tools and variables, as well as referencing water markets in other countries, the study identifies key variables and model boundaries. It further defines processes of supply, demand, optimal allocation and distribution, and the interrelationships among them. The connections between elements are illustrated using diagrams, causal loop diagrams, and feedback loops (supply and demand). A portion of the tested assumptions, along with both mathematical and mental models, were designed and implemented in the Vensim software. Establishing an integrated water market as a complex natural and social system is deemed an unavoidable necessity under current water scarcity conditions. Consequently, the developed dynamic model, incorporating relevant elements and variables, was locally validated and optimized as a comprehensive model. The application and repeated simulation of the model within its defined boundaries yielded outcomes such as improved water supply and reduced wastage of water resources. The study identifies dynamic integration in the water market as one of the primary solutions to the issue and emphasizes the urgency of its implementation adapted to the local conditions of each country.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Hamidreza Abbasi; Mehrzad Minouei, Fraydoon Rahnamay Roodposhti (Author)
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