Development of an Agent-Based Sustainability Model for Iran’s Power Generation Industry

Abstract

This study develops a comprehensive and dynamic agent-based model for assessing sustainability in Iran’s power-generation industry, with Shahid Montazer Ghaem Power Plant as the empirical context. The research is applied in purpose and follows an exploratory mixed-method design. First, thematic analysis was used to convert expert knowledge into a structured sustainability framework. The detailed qualitative phase involved a purposively selected panel of 25 power-sector experts representing electrical and mechanical engineering, industrial engineering, energy and environmental management, policy, and academic research. Thematic coding produced 487 meaningful statements, 112 initial codes, 36 basic themes, 12 organizing themes, and six global themes. Second, the qualitative findings were operationalized in Net-Logo as an agent-based model with three principal agent types: power plants, a regulator, and electricity demanders. The model represents production capacity, efficiency, failures, fuel and water consumption, emissions, costs, revenues, profit, regulatory instruments, and demand growth. Eight policy and stress scenarios were examined. The results show that power-plant sustainability emerges from nonlinear interactions among technical, economic, environmental, resource, institutional, and human dimensions. Technical performance especially equipment reliability, efficiency, and preventive maintenance acts as a critical bottleneck, while water and fuel constraints sharply reduce supply adequacy. Technology upgrading and an integrated policy package produced the strongest overall sustainability outcomes. The proposed model provides a decision-support framework for testing policies before implementation and for identifying leverage points for sustainable power-plant management.