Presenting a Technology Diffusion Model in Iran's Petro-Refinery Sector Using the System Dynamics Approach
Keywords:
Technology diffusion, Causal loop diagrams, Petro-refinery.Abstract
This article employs the system dynamics approach to examine and analyze the process of technology diffusion in Iran’s petro-refinery industry. Initially, key factors influencing technology diffusion were identified, including: technology development organizations and managerial infrastructure, needs assessment and feasibility studies, negotiation and contract finalization skills, training and technology transfer, industrial implementation, feedback and continuous improvement, international collaborations and sanctions, diffusion costs, and delays in contract execution. Subsequently, using system dynamics modeling, the causal relationships among these factors and their mutual impacts on the process of technology diffusion in the petro-refinery sector were analyzed. Finally, the current state of this industry regarding technology diffusion was simulated. The projection indicates that, under the existing trajectory, it would take centuries for all transferred technologies to reach the diffusion stage—unless reforms are implemented in the process, such as increasing the number of technology development organizations and managerial infrastructures, and ensuring oversight and control by these organizations throughout all stages of technology transfer.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Mansoureh Esmaeili, Mohammad Mehdi Movahhedi (Author); Majid Motamedi
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